Forecasts of B.C. LNG Revenues are Disputed as “Cloudy”

A week after Premier Clark released optimistic projections for the province’s liquefied natural gas strategy in February, the Energy ministry released two independent consultant’s reports on the issue. In an article in The Tyee, Geoff Dembicki unravels the calculations behind the government’s projected revenues, the consultants’ numbers, and the current industry opinion. He concludes that the projections are built on unrealistic assumptions, and “industry opinion also suggests B.C. is unlikely to realize tax revenues of $260 billion, or even the lower Liberal estimate of $130 billion.” Read “Clark’s Gas Export Optimism Floats on Cloudy Numbers” by Geoff Dembicki in The Tyee (April 10, 2013) at: http://thetyee.ca/News/2013/04/10/LNG-Revenues-Cloudy/.  

The two consultant’s reports are athttp://www.llbc.leg.bc.ca/public/pubdocs/bcdocs2013/528495/grant%20thornton%20-%20lng%20revenue.pdf andhttp://www.empr.gov.bc.ca/OG/Documents/Ernst%20and%20Young%20-%20LNG%20Revenue.pdf.

Another article by Dembicki, on April 4, provides more background and criticism of the LNG strategy. By changing the rules to allow natural gas to power the energy-intensive processing stages of LNG, the government has undercut its own “clean energy” boast and reduced the potential job benefits for First Nations clean energy enterprises. Read “Changes to LNG Plan Pull Plug on Jobs Say First Nations” in The Tyee (April 4, 2013) at: http://thetyee.ca/News/2013/04/04/Changes-to-LNG-Plan/, and a supporting 2012 blog by Matt Horne of the Pembina Institute at: http://www.pembina.org/blog/611.

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