Carbon Market Watch released a policy briefing report in March which found that only Sweden, Germany and France are making successful efforts towards meeting their Paris Agreement targets. EU Climate Leader Board: Where Countries Stand On The Effort Sharing Regulation – Europe’s Largest Climate Tool ranked the EU nations for their actions towards meeting the Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR), currently under negotiation to set binding 2021-2030 national emission reduction targets for sectors not covered in the Emission Trading Scheme (ETS), including transport, buildings, agriculture and waste. “Only three member states on track to meet Paris goals“, appeared in the EurActiv newsletter, summarizing the report and pointing to many failings by member nations, including some “who exploited loopholes in United Nations forestry rules to pocket carbon credits worth €600 million”. The National Observer noted the Climate Market Watch report in “Here`s How Europe ranks in the race against climate change” , and asks “Where does that leave Canada?” . As part of its own answer, the article cites a report in The National Post newspaper on March 30: “Secret briefing says up to $300-per-tonne federal carbon tax by 2050 required to meet climate targets” . The article is based on a briefing note to the Minister of Environment and Climate Change in November 2015, obtained through a Freedom of Information request. The briefing note tells the Minister that in order to meet Canada’s 2030 emissions targets, a carbon price of $100 per tonne would need to be in place by 2020, with a price as high as $300 per tonne by 2050. The current national price for those provinces who agreed to the the Pan-Canadian Framework is $10 per tonne, rising to $50 per tonne by 2022.
Another answer to the question, “where does that leave Canada?” might be the report released by Environment and Climate Change Canada: Canadian Environmental Sustainability Indicators: Progress Towards Canada’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Target , which shows that Canada could be emitting at least 30% more GHG emissions than promised by 2030. The report, however, is based on the policies in place as of November, 2016 – before the current Pan-Canadian Framework on Clean Growth and Climate Change. The government is downplaying its own report, calling it only a set of “plausible outcomes”, rather than a forecast.