On June 7, the European unions IG Metall and IndustriAll Europe released a report which models the employment impacts of the possible fuel efficiency standards required to further decarbonize the European automotive industry. The report, whose title translates as Effects of vehicle electrification on employment in Germany, presents three scenarios: the first, close to existing regulations, will require a 2030 automotive fleet consisting of 15% plug-in hybrids and 25% battery-electric vehicles, and is forecast to result in an 11% loss of employment by 2030, or 67,000 jobs. The second and third scenarios predict even more job loss – 108,000 or 210,000 across Europe.
In a press release announcing the study, the automotive advisor of IG Metall and chairman of the automotive committee of IndustriAll Europe says: “We fully support the evolution towards a new automotive paradigm, but this has to happen in a socially acceptable way. …. It will require the combination of industrial and employment strategies. Mass training programmes will be needed while ambitious reconversion plans should avoid the decline of regions…. In this respect we should not forget that many regions all over Europe are heavily integrated in the automotive supply chains. Equally, we should not forget that thousands of SMEs producing conventional components are at risk as they miss the necessary financial resources, the research capacity and the technologies to invest in alternative products. Also, the aftermarket and its 4m jobs will be severely disrupted as electric vehicles require much less maintenance”.
The report is not available in English, but is summarized in the press releases by IndustriAll and by IG Metal (in German, use the “translate” feature) . It was initiated by IG Metall, along with car manufacturers BMW, Volkswagen and Daimler, automotive suppliers Robert Bosch, ZF Friedrichshafen, Schaeffler, and Mahle and the German Association of the Automotive Industry. Research was conducted by the Fraunhofer Institute for Ergonomics and Organization (IAO) in Stuttgart , using data from the companies involved.
In March 2018, IndustriAll announced that it was one of the stakeholders in a newly-approved EU Blueprint for Sectoral Cooperation on Skills in the automotive industry (part of the New Skills Agenda for Europe). The March press release characterized the automotive sector as “in turmoil because of so many structural changes taking place at the same time: the ever stricter emission standards and the resulting quest for alternative powertrains, the digitalisation of production processes, automated driving, the increasing connectivity of cars with the outside world, development of mobility as a service.”