The complexity of the global energy landscape has been changed profoundly, according to the International Energy Association’s flagship publication, the Global Energy Review , released on April 30. It forecasts a minimum 6% decline in global energy demand for 2020, (9% in the United States and 11% in the European Union), stating, “The projected 6% decline would be more than seven times the impact of the 2008 financial crisis on global energy demand, reversing the growth of global energy demand over the last five years. The absolute decline in global energy demand in 2020 is without precedent, and relative declines of this order are without precedent for the last 70 years.” The accompanying press release describes the decline of fossil fuels as an “historic shock to the entire energy world” and “staggering”, especially for coal, oil and gas. The IEA forecasts that renewables will be the only energy source to grow in 2020.
Here are a few of the many recent news articles which sum up the dire impacts on oil and gas in Canada:
In “For oil and its dependents, it’s code blue” (The Tyee, April 18), Andrew Nikoforuk predicts that the “great price collapse of 2020 will topple companies and transform states”.
“Fossils Expect Permanent Losses, Renewables Keep Growing As Pandemic Crashes Global Energy Demand” in The Energy Mix (May 3);
“What rock-bottom natural gas prices mean for Canada’s aspiring LNG industry” in The Narwhal (May 1);
“‘We are in crisis mode’: Newfoundland calls on Ottawa to fund oil and gas exploration” in the Globe and Mail (April 29);
And Canadian Press stories reprinted by the National Observer on May 1 include: “Precision Drilling down almost 3000 employees due to oil and gas downturn” (May 1); “Oil and gas drilling forecast revised to 49-year low”; “Teck Resources leaves energy group CAPP citing cost cutting” ; and “Alberta oil and gas company reports include a loss of $1.3 billion for Vermillion Energy” (April 29) .
Fatih Birol, Director of the International Energy Agency has promoted clean energy in several public statements, including a March 14 commentary: “Put clean energy at the heart of stimulus plans to counter the coronavirus crisis”, which states, “Governments are drawing up stimulus plans in an effort to counter the economic damage from the crisis. These stimulus packages offer an excellent opportunity to ensure that the essential task of building a secure and sustainable energy future doesn’t get lost amid the flurry of immediate priorities ” The IEA promises a World Energy Outlook special report in June “that will quantify how clean energy policies and investments can create jobs, support economic recoveries and achieve emissions reductions. The report’s findings and recommendations will inform the high-level discussions at the IEA Clean Energy Transitions Summit on 9 July.”