Canada’s Changing Climate Report (CCCR), was released on April 2, documenting the consensus of scientific experts from the federal government and academia, about how and why Canada’s climate has changed to date, with projections for the future. The main message is tipped by the title of the government’s press release: “Canada’s climate is warming twice as fast as global average”. Canada’s annual temperature over land has warmed on average 1.7 degrees Celsius between 1948 and 2016 (compared with the the IPCC assessment of average global warming between 0.8 C and 1.2 C). Worse, in the Arctic, temperatures have risen by 2.3C – about three times the global average. In some parts of the Northwest Territories, temperatures have risen by between 4 C and 5 C .
Like the careful scientific style of the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (Oct. 2018), the Canadian report offers two different scenarios, based on low and high emissions futures. The general statement about the future, however, states: “The effects of widespread warming are already evident in many parts of Canada and are projected to intensify in the near future. A warmer climate will affect the frequency and intensity of forest fires, the extent and duration of snow and ice cover, precipitation, permafrost temperatures, and other extremes of weather and climate, as well as freshwater availability, rising of sea level, and other properties of the oceans surrounding Canada.” “Scenarios with limited warming will only occur if Canada and the rest of the world reduce carbon emissions to near zero early in the second half of the century and reduce emissions of other greenhouse gases substantially.”
The report is available in English and in French , with a 17-page Executive Summary in English and in French . This is the first in a series of National Assessment reports to be rolled out until 2021, including a National Issues report on climate change impacts and adaptation; a Regional Perspectives report about impacts and adaptation in six regions, and a Health of Canadians in a Changing Climate report, assessing risks to health and to the health care system.
Are Canadians panicking? Sorry Greta, not yet anyway: Summaries of the Changing Climate Report include: “Canada says global carbon pollution must be reduced to ‘near zero’ to limit harsh impacts” in The National Observer ; “Environmentalists hope for action in wake of ‘shocking and utterly unsurprising’ climate-change report” (consisting mostly of embedded audio interviews); CBC’s “What you need to know about the new climate report” ; an Energy Mix summary by Mitchell Beer ; and Crawford Kilian in The Tyee, “New Climate change report should be a wake-up call” which focuses on British Columbia.
Two Opinion Pieces may explain the lack of panic with which this report has been greeted : Thomas Walkom in the Toronto Star, “Canadian politicians are obsessed with the wrong crisis” and Neil Macdonald at CBC “Report on devastating Canadian climate change a far bigger issue than Jody Wilson-Raybould” .
Reaction from the Council of Canadians Blog is constructive: “Canada is warming faster than we thought. What can we do about it?” –urging readers to take individual action, including support for a Canadian Green New Deal. Such political action will be necessary, according to Julie Gelfand, Canada’s Commissioner of the Environment and Sustainable Development, who tabled her Spring 2019 audit reports in Parliament on April 2. The environmental audits cover the topics of aquatic invasive species, the protection of fish and their habitat from mining effluent, and subsidies to the fossil fuels sector. In the accompanying “Perspective” statement as she leaves her position after five years, she reflects on lessons learned and concludes: “it’s the slow action on climate change that is disturbing. Many of my reports focused on climate change from various angles. We looked at federal support for sustainable municipal infrastructure, mitigating the impacts of severe weather, marine navigation in the Canadian Arctic, environmental monitoring of oil sands, oversight of federally regulated pipelines, funding clean energy technologies, fossil fuel subsidies, and progress on reducing greenhouse gases. For decades, successive federal governments have failed to reach their targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and the government is not ready to adapt to a changing climate. This must change.”