Risk or reward? Securing a just transition in the north of England is a study released in late October by the Institute for Public Policy Research North (IPPR), based in Manchester and Newcastle of the U.K. – an area disproportionately at risk for job losses in the shift to a low carbon economy as it is the home of the majority of England’s coal and gas power stations. This Interim report estimates that approximately 28,000 jobs in the coal, oil and gas industries could be lost by 2030 as the low carbon economy grows. In 2017, the IPPR forecasts that up to 46,000 low-carbon power sector jobs and 100,000 jobs could be created by 2030 by its Northern Energy Strategy , including a Northern Energy Skills Programme .
Risk or Reward? forecasts job numbers, but also discusses the quality of jobs using compensation levels of representative energy jobs. The report concludes that “Fundamentally, there is a failure to incorporate a just transition into industrial strategy and decarbonisation policy more generally; but, even if it were acknowledged, the skills system is ill-equipped to provide support for those that need retraining or for the next generation. Compounded by the uncertainty of Brexit amidst international competition for labour and skills, there is a real risk that the transition to a low carbon economy will not be just.”
Risk or Reward is an interim report. IPPR promises a Final Report in 2019 which will recommend a strategy for government action, to put just transition “at the heart of decarbonisation and industrial strategy”, and to build a skills system capable of supporting existing and future workers through well-paid, skilled and secure jobs. “This strategy will also consider other challenges facing the low-carbon sector both now and in the future, including how to ensure it can deliver good working conditions and a diverse workforce. In addition, it will set out the crucial role of trade unions in delivering well-paid, secure and high skilled jobs, as well as a successful industrial strategy and improving productivity.”
Companion reading to Risk or Reward is the broader perspective of Prosperity and Justice: A plan for the new economy – the final report of the IPPR Commission on Economic Justice , established in the 2016 in the wake of Britain’s vote to leave the European Union. The Final Report is here; an Executive Summary is here. Prosperity and Justice presents a 10-part plan for economic reform and makes more than 70 recommendations – which it states “ offer the potential for the most significant change in economic policy in a generation”. It includes a chapter titled “Ensuring Environmental Sustainability” as fundamental to its economic goal of just growth. The IPPR Commission on Economic Justice published an Interim Report (2017), as well as discussion and policy papers – including including Power to the people: How stronger unions can deliver economic justice.