An excellent overview article about Canada’s “staggering challenge” and policy options to meet its emissions reduction targets appeared in The Conversation on January 11, 2018), written by Warren Mabee, Director of the Institute for Energy and Environmental Policy at Queen’s University and a Co-Investigator in the Adapting Canadian Work and Workplaces to Respond to Climate Change ( ACW) project. “How your online shopping is impeding Canada’s emissions targets” outlines the issues of clean electricity, transportation emissions (where your online shopping can make a difference), greener homes, and rethinking fossil resources, and concludes that “If we’re to succeed, Canada will need an integrated, holistic suite of policies – and we need them to be in place soon.”
Other recent publications take stock of Canada’s emissions reductions in greater detail. In its 3rd Environmental Performance Review for Canada released on December 19, the OECD warns that “Without a drastic decrease in the emissions intensity of the oilsands industry, the projected increase in oil production may seriously risk the achievement of Canada’s climate mitigation targets… …“Canada is the fourth-largest emitter of greenhouse gasses in the OECD [in absolute terms], and emissions show no sign of falling yet.” Canada’s emissions actually did decrease since the last report was issued in 2004, but only by 1.5 per cent compared to reduction of 4.7 per cent by the OECD as a whole. In addition to the impact of oil sands production, the OECD singles out a regime of poor tax incentives: “Petrol and diesel taxes for road use are among the lowest in the OECD, fossil fuels used for electricity and heating remain untaxed or taxed at low rates in most jurisdictions, and the federal excise tax on fuel-inefficient vehicles is an ineffective incentive to purchase low-emission vehicles.”
The OECD analysis finds support in a report from two researchers from the University of Toronto, in “How the oil sands make our GHG targets unachievable” in Policy Options. They state: “… only with a complete phase-out of oil production from the oil sands, elimination of coal for electricity generation, significant replacement of natural-gas-fuelled electricity generation with electricity from carbon-free sources, and stringent efficiency measures in all other sectors of the economy could Canada plausibly meet its 30 percent target.” The authors recommend a gradual (12-to-15-year) phase-out of oil sands operations, with workers and capital redeployed to emerging sectors such as renewable energy and building retrofits, and contend that the importance of oil sands production is overstated. “…. the direct contribution of the entire oil, gas and mining sector to Alberta’s 2016 GDP was 16.4 percent, of which oil sands mining and processing was likely about one-third (or 5 to 6 percent of total provincial GDP)” ….and oil sands oil production is estimated to account for only 2 percent of Canadian GDP.”
Yet the federal government continues the difficult balancing act of a “have-it-all” approach – for example, in a speech by Natural Resources Minister Jim Carr in November 2017, in which he defended the approval of the Trans Mountain Pipeline with: “We need to prepare for the future, but we must deal with the present …..That means continuing to support our oil and gas resources even as we develop alternatives – including solar, wind and tidal…. new pipelines will diversify our markets, be built with improved environmental safety and create thousands of good middle-class jobs, including in Indigenous communities. They were the right decisions then and they are the right ones now. ” A recent blog by Patrick DeRochie of Environmental Defence, “Trudeau Thinks We Can Expand Oil And Still Reduce Carbon. Let’s Put That To A Test” , challenges this view .
On December 29, Canada issued a press release announcing that it has submitted its Seventh National Communication and Third Biennial Report to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change , required by the UNFCCC to document progress towards its 2030 greenhouse gas emissions reduction goal of 30% reduction from 2005 levels. The title of the government press release, “Canada’s Climate action is Working, Report to United Nations Confirms” is justified by including estimates of the effects of policies still under development in a “with additional measures scenario”. Under that scenario, the government forecasts an emissions decline across all economic sectors, equivalent to approximately a third of Canada’s emissions in 2015 by 2030… ”
Meanwhile, the federal government has released a number of announcements and legislative proposals in December 2017 and January 2018. Regarding the planned carbon pricing backstop under the Pan-Canadian Framework, which will come into effect by January 2019: Details are set out in: Supplemental Benchmark Guidance Timelines , and the Letter to Ministers in December, and on January 15, the proposed carbon backstop legislative framework was released as Legislative and Regulatory Proposals Relating to the Greenhouse Gas Pollution Pricing Act and Explanatory Notes (French version here) . Also on January 15, the federal government released for comment the proposed regulatory framework for carbon pricing for large industrial facilities – an Output-based Pricing System (OBPS) described in more detail in a separate WCR post here.
On December 12, the Clean Fuel Standard Regulatory Framework was released for comment. The government has also committed to developing a national strategy for zero emission vehicles in 2018 to increase the supply of zero-emission vehicles.
Also on December 12, and capping six months of consultation under the banner Generation Energy, the Minister of Natural Resources announced the creation of a 14-member Generation Energy Council to be co-chaired by Merran Smith, Executive Director of Clean Energy Canada, and Linda Coady, Chief Sustainability Officer at Enbridge. (Bios of all members are here ). The council is tasked with preparing a report to advise the government on an “ energy policy that ensures meaningful engagement with Indigenous peoples; aligns with Canada’s Paris Agreement commitments and the Pan-Canadian Framework on Clean Growth and Climate Change; and complements the work being done by the provinces and territories, building on the shared priorities identified at the Federal, Provincial and Territorial Ministers Meeting at the Forum.”